20 Aug · 12:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1453
FormLWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mandrysz
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1518
FormWLWLL
45%
55%
🌟Stefek covers set handicap as underdog 70% (37)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)