20 Aug · 12:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Rein
ELO 1462
FormLWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Dvorak
FD
🇨🇿Frantisek Dvorak
ELO 1535
FormLLLLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+73
H2H54-30
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (54-30)