20 Aug · 14:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FD
🇨🇿Frantisek Dvorak
ELO 1535
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Koutnik
VK
🇨🇿Vojtech Koutnik
ELO 1567
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 64% (28)
Fair odds · Koutnik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.