20 Aug · 13:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1715
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Vesecky
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1614
FormLWWLL
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Brozek
Fair odds · Vesecky
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+101
H2H46-21
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+101)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (46-21)