20 Aug · 11:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1453
FormLWWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1457
FormWWWLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (62)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H5-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.