20 Aug · 13:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1453
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jemelka
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1476
FormWWWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stefek🌟Stefek covers set handicap as underdog 70% (37)
Fair odds · Jemelka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.