20 Aug · 17:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hendrych
ELO 1533
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Moravec
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1565
FormLLWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hendrych🌟Hendrych covers set handicap as underdog 70% (77)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H13-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.