20 Aug · 16:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1457
FormLLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Moravec
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1565
FormLLWLW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 69% (72)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+108
H2H2-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+108)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)