20 Aug · 17:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1484
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Fitl
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1530
FormWWLWW
46%
54%
🌟Fitl stays under total as favourite 62% (53)
Fair odds · Fitl
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H10-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.