20 Aug · 16:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1508
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1462
FormWWLWW
54%
46%
🌟Stefek covers set handicap as underdog 70% (37)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.