20 Aug · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KZ
🇨🇿Krzysztof Zapala
ELO 1555
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zapala
BB
🇨🇿Bilski Bartosz
ELO 1507
FormWWLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Zapala
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H15-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.