21 Aug · 11:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1630
FormWLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Benes
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1632
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Kocab covers set handicap as underdog 65% (43)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H14-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.