21 Aug · 10:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1632
FormWLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Benes
OF
🇨🇿Ondrej Fiklik
ELO 1523
FormLLLLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Benes
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+109
H2H77-61
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+109)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (77-61)