21 Aug · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1514
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lovl
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1540
FormWLLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H9-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.