21 Aug · 13:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1561
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hyza
DH
🇨🇿Daniel Hyza
ELO 1573
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 70% (120)
Fair odds · Hyza
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.