21 Aug · 17:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VK
🇨🇿Vojtech Konvicka
ELO 1505
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Konvicka
TG
🇨🇿Tomas Grmela
ELO 1490
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
🌟Grmela stays under total as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Konvicka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.