21 Aug · 18:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vodal
ELO 1485
FormLLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Vodal
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1421
FormLLLLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Vodal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (84)
Fair odds · Vodal
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+64
H2H23-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-19)