21 Aug · 16:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Bartik
ELO 1685
FormWWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Bartik
T2
🇨🇿Tomas Beran 2000
ELO 1574
FormWLWLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · 2000🌟2000 covers set handicap as underdog 71% (14)
Fair odds · Bartik
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+111
H2H7-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+111)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)