21 Aug · 17:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇨🇿Martin Kucera
ELO 1583
FormLWWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Bartik
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Bartik
ELO 1685
FormWWLWW
42%
58%
🌟Bartik goes over total as favourite 67% (27)
Fair odds · Bartik
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+102
H2H11-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+102)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-4)