21 Aug · 22:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1564
FormWLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Krupnik
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1498
FormLWLLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heuman🌟Heuman covers set handicap as underdog 76% (45)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+66
H2H13-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-10)