21 Aug · 22:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1484
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zeman
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1434
FormWLWLL
54%
46%
🌟Zeman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (41)
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H13-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.