21 Aug · 22:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1372
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Chmelicek
RJ
🇨🇿Radim Jaros
ELO 1311
FormWLLWL
55%
45%
🌟Chmelicek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (29)
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~73 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+61
H2H11-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-3)