21 Aug · 20:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VR
🇨🇿Vladislav Reska
ELO 1502
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Reska
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1484
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
🌟Reska stays under total as favourite 63% (57)
Fair odds · Reska
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H14-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.