21 Aug · 17:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1552
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Melichar
DT
🇨🇿Dominik Tichy
ELO 1521
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tichy🌟Tichy covers set handicap as underdog 72% (46)
Fair odds · Melichar
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.