22 Aug · 11:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1505
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sevecek
JS
🇨🇿Jan Sevecek
ELO 1537
FormLWWWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strelec🌟Sevecek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (29)
Fair odds · Sevecek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.