22 Aug · 12:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1388
FormLWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Chmelicek
RJ
🇨🇿Radim Jaros
ELO 1306
FormLLLWW
57%
43%
🌟Chmelicek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (29)
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H12-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-3)