22 Aug · 08:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Rein
ELO 1478
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vodal
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vodal
ELO 1489
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🌟Vodal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (86)
Fair odds · Vodal
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H35-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.