22 Aug · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1505
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Strelec
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1483
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jancak🌟Jancak covers set handicap as underdog 70% (56)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.