22 Aug · 10:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1572
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chvatal
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1555
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lovl🌟Chvatal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Chvatal
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H11-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.