22 Aug · 13:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1505
FormLWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Strelec
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1445
FormWLLLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 71% (73)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H7-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-4)