22 Aug · 11:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1576
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pribyl
JP
🇨🇿Jan Pribyl
ELO 1590
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Pribyl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.