22 Aug · 13:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇨🇿Jan Sevecek
ELO 1537
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Sevecek
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1445
FormWLLLW
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 71% (73)
Fair odds · Sevecek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+92
H2H9-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+92)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-7)