22 Aug · 10:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Michal Szostak
ELO 1459
FormLWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kos
KK
🇨🇿Kamil Kos
ELO 1565
FormWWWWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Kos
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+106
H2H5-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+106)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)