22 Aug · 15:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1496
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dzida
LD
🇨🇿Lukas Dzida
ELO 1538
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
🌟Cizek covers set handicap as underdog 66% (73)
Fair odds · Dzida
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.