22 Aug · 16:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1700
FormWWWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Karel
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1601
FormLWWLW
58%
42%
🌟Karel goes over total as favourite 67% (24)
Fair odds · Karel
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+99
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+99)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)