22 Aug · 16:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1576
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mrowetz
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1532
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec
Fair odds · Mrowetz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H12-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.