22 Aug · 16:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Bartik
ELO 1674
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Bartik
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1646
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Trnka🌟Trnka goes over total as underdog 77% (13)
Fair odds · Bartik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H7-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.