22 Aug · 19:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jiri Skalicky
ELO 1576
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skalicky
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1549
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 64% (69)
Fair odds · Skalicky
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.