22 Aug · 19:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1496
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lysek
TL
🇨🇿Tomas Lysek
ELO 1526
FormLLWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cizek🌟Lysek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 17% (24)
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.