22 Aug · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Bartik
ELO 1680
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Karel
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1700
FormWWWWL
48%
52%
🌟Karel goes over total as favourite 67% (24)
Fair odds · Karel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H7-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.