23 Aug · 13:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kus
ELO 1453
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kus
MJ
🇨🇿Michal Janik
ELO 1419
FormLWLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Janik🌟Kus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (33)
Fair odds · Kus
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.