23 Aug · 09:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1497
FormWLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Zeman
MJ
🇨🇿Michal Janik
ELO 1419
FormLWLLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Janik🌟Zeman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (43)
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)