23 Aug · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DV
🇨🇿Daniel Vitasek
ELO 1508
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stusek
DS
🇨🇿David Stusek
ELO 1521
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
🌟Vitasek covers set handicap as underdog 64% (70)
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.