29 Aug · 15:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SH
🇨🇿Simon Holik
ELO 1502
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Dohnal
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1506
FormLWLWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dohnal🌟Dohnal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (131)
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 38% · 2.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H7-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.