29 Aug · 19:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1489
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jr
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1515
FormWLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Jr
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H10-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.