29 Aug · 19:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1513
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kanak
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kanak
ELO 1515
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kanak🌟Kanak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 12% (32)
Fair odds · Kanak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.