29 Aug · 15:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1488
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chlad
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1470
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🌟Chlad rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (42)
Fair odds · Chlad
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.