29 Aug · 17:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1488
FormWLWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Chlad
BJ
🇨🇿Bartolomej Jonas
ELO 1390
FormLLWWW
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jonas🌟Jonas covers set handicap as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Chlad
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+98
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+98)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)