29 Aug · 20:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1548
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Krupnik
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1539
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Krupnik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (74)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H36-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.