29 Aug · 21:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kanak
ELO 1515
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Krupnik
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1548
FormLWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kanak🌟Kanak covers set handicap as underdog 81% (16)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.